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Argentine President Cristina Kirchner’s controversial proposal to raise the tax on soybean exports seems likely to be approved by the country’s legislature and sanctioned into law, following its passage by a narrow margin in the lower house on Saturday.

The 129-122 vote in the lower-house for the tax increase was a victory for Mrs. Kirchner, though at a steep cost, following nearly four months of protests from farmers that have buffeted the economy and sapped her approval ratings. It isn’t clear how much the congressional stamp of approval on the measure will assuage angry farmers, who have withheld products and blocked rural roads, in Argentina’s worst political unrest since its financial collapse in 2002. Rural interests are also challenging the measure in courts.

The lower-house approval came after some arm twisting by Mrs. Kirchner’s husband, Nestor, the former president and current head of the governing Peronist party. He managed to win over some wavering legislators from rural districts by incorporating tax breaks and subsidies for smaller farmers into the proposal. But Mr. Kirchner refused to budge on the most contentious part of the plan, a move to change the tax on soybean exports, which had been fixed at 35%, so that it shifts in line with international prices.

The farmers say the tax places an excessive economic burden on them. But the government maintains the tax will provide additional revenue to fund vital programs and pay for energy subsidies.

Rural leaders tried to put a positive face on the lower-house vote, likening it to a soccer game that still had another half to play in the legislature’s upper house, the Senate. But it seemed likely that the Senate, which is dominated by the Kirchners’ Peronist faction, would follow the lead of the lower house and give the Kirchners the simple majority they need. One preliminary count by the Buenos Aires newspaper La Nacion had 38 out of 72 senators backing the government. The Senate will start discussions on the bill this week.

Some agrarian leaders remained defiant after the lower-house vote. Alfredo de Angeli, a soybean grower who has emerged as a celebrity during the debate, said, “The protest continues; the demands are going to continue.”

But other farm representatives were more careful in their comments in the wake of the legislative defeat. And analysts say that agrarian leaders, who have won widespread sympathy in opinion polls, have to be careful about overplaying their hand. The farm leaders had hailed Mrs. Kirchner’s decision to send the proposal to Congress last month as a victory for democracy; originally, she had tried to impose the increase by decree. Now, if farmers persist in protesting, they run the risk of being perceived as undemocratic, something the Kirchners have long contended, analysts say.